Windows 7 is due out mid-2009 (Windows Vista is "Windows 6"). So
that means that machines shipping by Christmas 2009, may
have it installed. Maybe, if nothing slips (Luke, my friend, get it
done!). But, regardless of landing date: I'm calling that Windows 7
will be backwards-compatible and stable. If it has major problems
(as all big Operating Systems launches are perceived poorly: unless
you have access to the
Steve Jobs reality distortion field), they will be in other
areas.
Why? No technological reason. Market forces and corporate
culture will ensure this.
Being stable & backwards-compatible would be the pendulum
swing back. Vista is "unstable" (I somewhat disagree) and not very
backwards-compatible. Windows XP was insecure. Microsoft took flak
and came back with Vista which is much more secure. Now they are
taking flak on stability and backwards compatibility. They'll take
this feedback to heart next go round.
There are some additional reasons why Windows 7 will be
backwards compatible and stable:
- Windows 7 is a smaller change from Windows Vista than was from
Windows XP. It's more incremental than revolutionary. So, this
means that it is simply more likely to be both more stable and
backwards compatible: fewer things changed.
- Microsoft + Windows used to be all about backwards
compatibility. Joel Spolsky argues that Microsoft has "lost that
religion" (or at least that they are losing it) 1. But
I think that it's something that they can regain. And I think
they'll prioritize regaining it this go-round.
Links & Notes
- http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/APIWar.html
startin at: "Microsoft Lost the Backwards Compatibility
Religion"
Make sure to also read the fascinating anecdote about backwards
compatibility in Windows 95 for SimCity
The problem is that Joel works from the premise that "entities are
one way." That is, a person who is X is always X. In this case: an
entity (Microsoft) who is tending towards X (non
backwards-compatibility) is going to go to X. When reality is more
that people behave across a spectrum of types. I'm suggesting that
Microsoft can behave as more or less backwards-compatible.
Sometimes more, sometimes less. It depends on their internal
decisions and external forces.
Note: I'm channeling this idea from a Nova that I watched months
ago but find a link to - my apologies (where is the bookmarking
functionality in my PVR? clearly missing)
- Another article by Joel about a more recent Microsoft
backwards-compatibility story/struggle -
Staged as a Martian parable: http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2008/03/17.html